Can Scotland finally break their long-standing losing streak?

Match action — New Zealand have made multiple modifications to the team that beat the Irish team

International Rugby Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks

Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital When: this weekend Time: 15:10 GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Rugby action — Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the narrow loss to New Zealand in 2022

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.

Can Scotland finally break their long-standing losing streak?

Modern Encounters

Team News

Key Absences

Replacement Concerns

Coaching Choices

Historical Context

By the Numbers

Required Performance

Final Analysis

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